Recently, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have triggered a tightening of global aluminum supply. Coupled with the accelerated domestic 'aluminum replacing copper' trend and favorable exports, aluminum prices have continued to rise, creating a 'tight balance' in the global aluminum industry supply and demand, and the industry chain is ushering in a new round of adjustments. On March 2, an attack on Qatar's core energy base led to a disruption in natural gas supply, directly affecting aluminum plant production. On March 3, the Qatalum aluminum plant in Qatar under Norway's Hydro (with an annual electrolytic aluminum production capacity of 648,000 tons, accounting for 0.85% of the global output) orderly suspended production, and a full restart will take 6 to 12 months. A force majeure notice has already been issued. The escalation of the Middle East situation has obstructed shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Additionally, some aluminum plants in Iran have suspended production, disturbing the regional aluminum capacity of about 7 million tons, with potential production cuts reaching around 4 million tons. Currently, the global visible aluminum inventory is only 1.175 million tons, sufficient for just 5.6 days of consumption, and the supply gap has further widened.

In 2021, my country's aluminum industry continued to deepen supply-side structural reforms, strictly control the new production capacity of electrolytic aluminum, strictly implement capacity replacement, accelerate the optimization and adjustment of industrial layout, and the industry is in good operation and the benefits are significantly improved.

1. Steady growth in output. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2021, the output of alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum materials were 77.48 million tons, 38.5 million tons, and 61.05 million tons, respectively, up 5%, 4.8%, and 7.4% year-on-year, and an average growth of 3.4%, 4.8%, and 7.8% over the past two years.

2. Inventory fluctuates within a normal range. According to statistics from industry analysis agencies, the social inventory of aluminum ingots at the end of December was 810,000 tons, an increase of 36% over the same period last year, and fluctuated within a normal range.

3. Prices continued to run high. According to statistics from the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, in 2021, aluminum prices continued to run high, with the average spot price for the whole year being 18,946 yuan/ton, up 33.5% year-on-year.

4. Imports of unwrought aluminum increased significantly. According to data from the General Administration of Customs, in 2021, bauxite and alumina (physical volume) were imported at 107.37 million tons and 3.33 million tons, respectively, down 3.8% and 12.6% year-on-year; aluminum scrap imports were 1.03 million tons, up 24.9% year-on-year; unwrought aluminum imports were 2.73 million tons, up 19% year-on-year. In 2021, aluminum exports were 5.46 million tons, up 17.9% year-on-year.

On May 29, the State Council issued the "2024-2025 Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction Action Plan", which involves multiple industries. For the non-ferrous metal industry, the plan puts forward the following requirements: Optimize the layout of non-ferrous metal production capacity. Strictly implement the replacement of electrolytic aluminum production capacity, strictly control the new production capacity of copper, alumina and other smelting, and rationally layout the new production capacity of silicon, lithium, magnesium and other industries. Vigorously develop the recycled metal industry. By the end of 2025, the proportion of recycled metal supply will reach more than 24%, and the proportion of direct alloying of molten aluminum will be increased to more than 90%. Newly built and expanded electrolytic aluminum projects must reach the energy efficiency benchmark level and environmental performance A level, and the energy efficiency of newly built and expanded alumina projects must reach the advanced value of the mandatory energy consumption limit standard. The energy efficiency of newly built polysilicon and lithium battery positive and negative electrode projects must reach the advanced level of the industry.